On June 16, 2020, the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (Ministry) released proposed amendments (Amendment 1) to A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan), and a proposed Land Needs Assessment Methodology for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (LNA). The proposed changes, if approved, will have a significant impact on the Municipal Comprehensive Reviews (MCRs) currently underway in several upper- and single-tier municipalities. The most significant change increases the population and employment forecasts that municipalities use to plan growth.

The proposals are part of More Homes, More Choice: Ontario’s Housing Action Plan, and build upon the issuance of the new Growth Plan in May 2019, and the enactment of the new Provincial Policy Statement, 2020 (PPS 2020), which came into force in May of this year.

Below is a summary of the proposed changes. Both proposals are currently posted on the Environmental Registry of Ontario (ERO) for public comment until July 31, 2020. A related amendment to the Growth Plan’s transition regulation is also open for comment on Ontario’s Regulatory Registry.

Growth plan policy changes and new higher growth forecasts

The proposed changes to the Growth Plan work in conjunction with the proposed new Land Needs Assessment Methodology. Most significantly, the horizon of the Growth Plan is proposed to be extended to 2051, and Schedule 3, which sets out growth forecasts for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, is being reviewed and extended to 2051.

The Ministry is considering a ‘Reference’ Growth Forecast as well as High and Low Growth Scenarios for Schedule 3, and is seeking feedback on these various scenarios. Policy changes are also proposed that would allow an upper or single-tier municipality to adopt higher forecasts than set out in Schedule 3, by way of MCR. The existing Simcoe County-specific growth forecasts currently included in Schedule 7 are proposed to be removed. Simcoe County would be included in Schedule 3 with the rest of the Greater Golden Horseshoe municipalities.

In addition to the growth forecasts and related policy changes, there are several other policy changes proposed, including:

1. Revisions to policy 2.2.5.10 to expedite mixed-use development around Major Transit Station Areas (MTSAs). The revised policy would permit employment conversions within a Provincially Significant Employment Zone (PSEZ) prior to a MCR, if part of the PSEZ is within a MTSA. These changes are discussed in greater detail below;
2. Removal of the prohibition on new mineral aggregate operations, wayside pits and quarries from habitats of endangered species and threatened species within the Growth Plan’s Natural Heritage System; and
3. Various housekeeping amendments for consistency with PPS 2020.

Major Transit Station Areas

The current Growth Plan requires municipalities to identify MTSAs as areas where higher population and employment densities are to be located. Both the municipal identification of MTSAs and the Ministry’s identification of PSEZs is a process that is currently ongoing. Currently, the Growth Plan provides that employment areas within a PSEZ cannot be converted to non-employment uses except through a MCR. The proposed amendment to Policy 2.2.5.10 of the Growth Plan would permit the conversion of employment areas to non-employment uses in advance of a MCR, provided that part of the employment area is located within a MTSA, and existing tests for a pre-MCR conversion are satisfied.

This proposed amendment was announced on the heels of the introduction of Bill 171, the Building Transit Faster Act, which includes various measures to expedite the construction of four Toronto transit projects, and was followed by the Province’s recent announcement of its ‘Made-in-Ontario Plan for Growth, Renewal, and Economic Recovery’ which includes various measures that would facilitate the construction of major transit infrastructure projects.

Transition

If approved, revisions to the existing Growth Plan transition regulation are proposed to facilitate the implementation of these changes as follows:

1. Rules that required conformity with the Growth Plan would now require conformity with the Growth Plan as amended by Amendment 1; and
2. Where the Local Planning Appeal Tribunal has completed a hearing, but not yet issued a decision in respect of a matter required to conform with the Growth Plan, those decisions are required to conform with the Growth Plan as it read before Amendment 1.

In light of the above, the proposed amendments will apply to most decisions immediately after they come into effect, including in ongoing MCRs. The ERO posting further notes that the Minister intends to retain the current deadline of July 1, 2022 for municipalities to complete their respective Growth Plan conformity exercises.

The ERO posting also alludes to the next phase of work on More Homes, More Choice, which will begin shortly, and will examine PSEZs, and how they can support post-COVID economic recovery through the retention and expansion of existing industrial and manufacturing operations.

Land needs assessment methodology

In conjunction with the proposed policy changes, the Ministry is also consulting on a proposed new LNA. The LNA is the methodology that municipalities must apply during a MCR to determine the amount of land required to accommodate the number and type of additional housing units and jobs required to meet market demands in conformity with the Growth Plan.

While the text of the proposed LNA is not currently available online, the ERO posting provides some details regarding the substance of the proposal in relation to both Community and Employment Area land needs planning.

Community Area LNA

Community Area lands are those where most housing required to accommodate forecasted population will be located. As part of the Community Area LNA process, the four components identified below provide minimum requirements to be considered when completing local land budgeting processes as part of the MCR:

1. Population Forecasts, including an examination of the minimum forecasts in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan, census population, and household population;
2. Housing Needs Analysis, which may be broken down by type of dwelling to include age-specific household formation rates in order to forecast growth in the number of households;
3. Housing Allocation and Supply Inventory, by municipalities in consultation with the public, using factors such as past and future market shares, planned urban structure, housing affordability, and a mix of housing forms and intensification; and
4. Community Area Jobs Analysis and Reconciliation, to assess the Community Area jobs to be allocated to the designated greenfield area to determine density targets. Estimations of persons per unit for different housing types, together with the projected housing units needed will provide, along with the Community Area jobs, the amount of land required to accommodate the forecasted growth.

Employment Area LNA

The Employment Area LNA involves employment forecasts, employment categorization and needs analysis, and employment allocation and reconciliation. The purpose of this process is to determine where and how much land is needed to accommodate forecasted employment growth in both Employment and Community Areas. As part of the Employment Area LNA, the following three components provide the minimum requirements to be considered in completing local land budgeting processes:

1. Employment Forecasts, including the minimum forecasts in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan;
2. Employment Categorization and Needs Analysis, wherein municipalities will categorize forecasted jobs based on primary land use (employment lands, population related, major office, and agricultural/rural); and
3. Employment Allocation and Reconciliation, wherein municipalities allocate the forecasted jobs between Community Areas and Employment Areas, as appropriate. Through this allocation, municipalities can determine whether there is sufficient employment area lands to accommodate the employment growth.

The proposed LNA does not preclude municipalities from considering alternate assumptions about population and employment growth to the horizon of the Growth Plan. A municipality may test alternative growth assumptions to establish the case for a higher density target, however assumptions that include density targets lower than those required in the Plan would require the Minister’s approval.

The deadline to submit comments to the Province is 11:59 p.m., July 31, 2020. If you have any questions about Amendment 1 or the LNA, their impact on your business, or require assistance in providing comments to the Ministry, please do not hesitate to contact Katarzyna Sliwa or any member of Dentons’ Municipal, Land Use Planning and Development Law team.