The presidential elections on Sunday April 11, 2021, went as expected with no candidate obtaining the majority of the votes. In that sense, Peruvians will now have to choose between the two candidates with the most votes in a presidential runoff that will take place on Sunday June 6, 2021.

A fragmented population, a troubled political scenario, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the economy resulted in Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori receiving most votes, a scenario that could not have been predicted just a few weeks before the elections. It should be noted that their accumulated votes only add up to 32% of the whole election, with Mr. Castillo obtaining 19% and Mrs. Fujimori with just over 13%. This means that practically 70% of the population does not feel represented by either candidate.

Regarding their political views and their proposals for the presidential term, we are in front of very different profiles. On one hand, Pedro Castillo, public school teacher and union leader, proposes changing the economic model for one that he calls “Popular Economy with Markets”, in which the Government occupies an active role as a business owner and market regulator. This implies, in his vision, a new Constitution, the absolute prohibition of private monopolies, and limits to contracting with transnational companies, amongst other measures.

Mr. Castillo’s plans also include the nationalization of strategic economic sector such as mining, gas, petrol, energy and communications, if companies chose not to agree with the new terms that his Government would set in force. The candidate has stated in multiple opportunities that he seeks to modify “abusive” contracts between the Government and multinational companies, indicating that tax regimes will be changed in order to ensure that revenues remain in the country and are reinvested here.

His political party, founded by former Regional Governor of Junín, Vladimir Cerrón, who has been sentenced for corruption, has ties with MOVADEF, the Movement for Amnesty and Fundamental Rights and FUDEPP, the Front for Unity and Defense of the Peruvian people, the political arms of both associated with the revolutionary and communist party as well as terrorist group Sendero Luminoso (“Shining Path”). It also takes inspiration from leftist leaders such as Rafael Correa and Evo Morales, in Ecuador and Bolivia, respectively.

We consider important to mention that Mr. Castillo’s Government Plan does not include any measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic or ensure vaccination of the population.

On the other hand, conservative leader Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori and former congresswoman, focuses on the reactivation of the country’s economy following the COVID-19 pandemic. Her plan has been named “Rescue 2021” and seeks to recover the well-being of all Peruvians with the development of a social market economy. She has set short, medium, and long-term goals, which include generation of jobs in the public sector, developing special aid programs for micro and small companies, and granting tax benefits for companies from the tourism sector affect by the pandemic.

For COVID-19 relief Mrs. Fujimori proposes massive use of molecular and antigen tests, contact tracing, isolation of infected citizens in their homes, and an adequate and gradual administration of vaccines whose efficacy is at least 70%. This also considers a reform of the health sector, which includes building 80 to 90 new hospitals equipped with oxygen plants nation-wide, strengthening the leadership of the Ministry of Health, and improving financing of Essalud (Social Security).

Mrs. Fujimori has an important political background that should be taken into consideration. In 2016, she was the runner up in the presidential elections, losing out by only 42,000 votes to former president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. In that election, her political party obtained a majority in the Congress and made matters extremely difficult for Mr. Kuczynski to govern, which is why many blame her for the political unrest that the country has experienced since 2016, including Mr. Kuczynski’s resignation in March 2018, which continues to have negative effects on the country.

In addition, Mrs. Fujimori is currently under investigation for money laundering due to irregular campaign contributions by Odebrecht in 2011 and the Lava Jato corruption scandal. In October 2018, she was arrested and spent over a year in prison, being released on December 2019 after the Constitutional Court granted her a habeas corpus. Fujimori returned to preventive detention in January 2020, a measure revoked by the Appeals Court in April 2020. The investigations are ongoing and to date a formal accusation has not been made by the prosecution.

Although both candidates have opposing views on the economy, given that both belong to a conservative current, they do have a share their views on certain issues like the progressiveness of human rights. As an example, both candidates had no proposal in their Government Plans to ensure the protection of vulnerable populations such as the LGBT+ community.

At this point, although the general perception is that the final winner will be Keiko Fujimori, the possibility of Mr. Castillo finishing first should not be dismissed, as political alliances are expected to arise in the following weeks. The choice Peruvians face is now whether to vote for a new economic system that could potentially destabilize the whole country and set it back, or vote to maintain status quo, which includes corruption, abuse, and social and political unrest.