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Key Takeaways

Pfizer and Moderna launched phase 3 clinical vaccine trials; the Pfizer trial is the largest yet, with 30,000 people. Fitch assessed the 2020 coronavirus recession will drive down GDP in the largest advanced economies 3-4 percent below their pre-virus trend path through the middle of this decade. The U.S. and Russia held space-security talks, with the two sides wrestling with how to guard against the increasing militarization of space.

Condition Updates

A rundown of important global developments in markets, in business, and region-by-region, as well as statistical risk assessments by country and by US state.

Thoughts on Potential US Military Overseas Troop Withdrawals

The possible withdrawal of US troops from bases overseas has been a topic of repeated discussion by the Trump Administration in recent years, leading many to question US commitment to global engagement. Two likely arenas are Germany and South Korea. However, support for troop presence overseas is strongly bi-partisan on the Hill, which will curtail any administration’s ability to unilaterally return large numbers of troops from overseas bases.

Flooding in the Yangtze River Basin

Since the beginning of June, heavy rainfall has caused the worst floods seen in decades along the Yangtze River in China, displacing millions and raising concerns about the integrity of major and minor dams struggling to contain the floodwaters. The flooding has also created a new arena of supply chain disruption and economic concerns. The extreme rains serve as a reminder that unpredictable weather patterns are becoming a bigger threat due to climate change.

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